President Obama claims to not be on the ballot this November; however, in a few days, we will see if voters agree with that or not. Republicans need to gain six seats in order to “Fire Reid,” the Democratic Senate Majority Leader. The field is not good for Democrats. They are mostly on defense, defending their gains from 2008. Many vulnerable incumbents and open seats fall in states that Romney won in 2012. Moreover, the GOP has recruited many strong candidates with previous experience in office. I know that there are more races going on besides the Senate races, but the House will most likely stay Republican and few gubernatorial races are as national as the those in the Senate this cycle. I refer to the Real Clear Politics Average Polls (RCP Poll Average) as of Oct. 26. The 2012 Presidential Results are from Politico.
Alaska: Begich (i) v. Sullivan
RCP Poll Average: Sullivan +4.2
2012 Presidential: Romney 55%
Prediction: Alaska has been an interesting race from the onset of this election cycle. Begich (D) is relatively popular in Alaska and overall shows great political aptitude. However, he slipped up in recent weeks after refusing to take down a recent advertisement that has been deemed offensive. This, as well as the Affordable Care Act’s unpopularity, have created a unique opportunity for former State Attorney General Dan Sullivan (R), who fought his way through a crowded GOP primary. I think Sullivan pulls this one out, but it will be close.
Arkansas: Pryor (i) v. Cotton
RCP Poll Average: Cotton +5
2012 Presidential: Romney 60.5%
Prediction: Mark Pryor (D), knew he was in trouble early on in this race. In fact, he was behind in the polls as early as March and then rallied over the summer, but has since slipped again. Arkansas has not had a good experience with Obamacare and the President has a disapproval rating of about 60.3 percent, according to the Huffington Post. Moreover, Tom Cotton (R) is no fire breather. In fact, Cotton graduated from Harvard undergrad and Law School and has served in the Army, completing two tours of duty overseas. I’m chalking this one up as a GOP victory as well.
Colorado: M. Udall (i) v. Gardner
RCP Poll Average: Gardner +2.8
2012 Presidential: Obama 51.2%
Prediction: Colorado is one of the many states Democrats didn’t think would really be in play this cycle that turned out to be tougher for them than they originally thought. Cory Gardner (R) is risking a sure congressional seat to challenge Mark Udall (D). Gardner is a more moderate GOP candidate challenging a strong liberal incumbent. However, Colorado in recent years has shifted much more to the left, supporting marijuana legalization and voting for Obama in 2008 and 2012. The state legislature even felt safe enough to challenge the Second Amendment, and that was the final straw. Two Democratic legislators were successfully recalled in 2013, which may signal that the GOP is motivated and ready to take back the Rocky Mountain State. It is important to note that Colorado’s other Senator, Michael Bennett (D), chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, so he will put up a fight for fellow Coloradan Udall. This race is too close to call, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there is only one Udall in the Senate next year.
Georgia: Nunn v. Perdue (Open Seat)
RCP Poll Average: Nunn +0.3
2012 Presidential: Romney 53.4%
Prediction: This is a race to watch this November. Georgia has arisen as the Democrats biggest chance at a seat pickup this November, and even one could derail a GOP majority. Michelle Nunn (D) has a slight advantage in that her father served as a U.S. Senator from Georgia. David Perdue (R) is a businessman who is fighting attacks on his record as a business leader and CEO of Dollar General. This race will most likely go to a runoff (no candidate will receive 50 percent of the vote in November, I think). This race will then be the focus of national attention and may determine Senate control. In my mind, there are two things to consider: who will have enough resources to win and how will the runoff effect turnout? Georgia is experiencing a slight demographic shift that may benefit Nunn, and national attention may drive up turnout which could benefit her as well. This race is too close to call. I will nominally give it to Perdue, because midterm voters tend to be more skewed towards the GOP.
Iowa: Braley v. Ernst (Open Seat)
RCP Poll Average: Ernst +2.2
2012 Presidential: Obama 52.1%
Prediction: Joni Ernst (R) has stormed onto the scene and become a frontrunner in this critical Iowa Senate race. She started was a dark horse in the GOP primary, but her “Let’s Make ‘Em Squeal” ad made her a GOP rock star. She has many presidential hopefuls come campaign with her (remember: Iowa is a critical presidential primary state). Moreover, Brue Braley (D) has lost some steam. I mean, even Michelle Obama doesn’t know his name, famously telling voters to vote for “Bruce Baily.” That’s not good. Also, Ernst is a State Senator and an officer in the Iowa National Guard who has had success pitching herself to voters. Congressman Braley, on the other hand, has often come across as cold and unlikable. He has managed to insult farmers, complain about the lack of towel service in the Congressional gym during the shutdown and is generally portrayed as callous. I think Lt. Col. Ernst will defeat Congressman Bruce “Baily” Braley.
Kansas: Orman v. Roberts (i)
RCP Poll Average: Orman +0.6
2012 Presidential: Obama 52.1%
Prediction: Kansas is probably the most frustrating and confusing race of the cycle. Pat Roberts (R) could have easily walked to victory had he squashed rumors of his lack of a home in Kansas. Moreover, Greg Orman (I) may just convince voters that he isn’t a Democrat and march to victory. Orman is quite possibly the most confusing candidate out there and has been a member of both major political parties, most recently the Democrats’. He has also contributed to many Democratic campaigns, including Barack Obama’s and Hillary Clinton’s, but also to Scott Brown (R-NH) in 2010 and the famous Todd Aiken (R-MO) campaign of 2012. I have no idea where this guy stands on anything. However, Roberts is in trouble, and Gov. Brownback isn’t helping him very much heading the GOP ticket. However, the other Kansas Senator Jerry Moran (R) is the Chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee and won’t lose Kansas without a fight. Overall, I think this race is a pure tossup. I’ll give it to Roberts, but only because he is an incumbent (and for the sake of a nice looking map).
Kentucky: Grimes v. McConnell (i)
RCP Poll Average: McConnell +4.4
2012 Presidential: Romney 60.5%
Prediction: If the Democrats win Kentucky, it would be a major victory for them because Mitch McConnell (R) is the current Minority Leader for the Republican Caucus. After fighting off a Tea Party challenger, McConnell has gained on Alison Grimes (D) and surpassed her in recent polls. It is interesting to note that in Kentucky, the state’s Obamacare Exchange has been relatively successful and may hurt McConnell, or at least take Obamacare out of the race. The big issue of this race is jobs, specifically those from the coal industry. Obama’s EPA regulations threaten Kentucky’s coal industry, and McConnell has accused the Democrats of waging a “War on Coal.” Grimes claims to support coal as well; however, she also campaigns with “coal makes us sick” Harry Reid, so it will be interesting to see who Kentuckians decide has their best interests at heart. I think Leader McConnell holds onto his seat.
Louisiana: Landrieu (i) v. Cassidy
RCP Poll Average: Cassidy +4.4
2012 Presidential: Romney 57.8%
Prediction: This is in close second for the most perplexing race of the cycle. Mary Landrieu (D) has a major name advantage in Louisiana. Most importantly, her brother is the Mayor of New Orleans. She also wields a lot of power as Chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources committee. She has taken favorable stances for her constituents on the Keystone XL Pipeline, the Export-Import Bank, and the oil export ban. Also, Louisiana, like Georgia, can go into a runoff if neither candidate reaches 50 percent. Congressman Bill Cassidy (R) leads in the polls, but if he doesn’t break 50 percent in the first election, I think he could lose the second. Landrieu has more resources at her disposal to play a massive turnout game in New Orleans, and, if turnout is high, she could hold on by her fingernails. This is another tossup, but Cassidy could win and avoid a runoff, so I will tentatively predict Cassidy.
Maine: Bellows v. Collins (i)
RCP Poll Average: Collins +29.7
2012 Presidential: Obama 56%
Prediction: Everybody in Maine likes Susan Collins (R). She is an example of moderate and thoughtful leadership in a partisan Senate. Shennah Bellows (D) is a former leader of the Maine ACLU and also a Middlebury alumna, class of ’97. However, she doesn’t stand a chance against Senator Collins. She would have a better shot at Angus King (I) the next time he is in cycle.
Michigan: Peters v. Land (Open Seat)
RCP Poll Average: Peters +10.1
2012 Presidential: Obama 54.3%
Prediction: I really was hoping Terri Lynn Land (R) would pull out a win for the GOP. She was a successful Secretary of State, but her Senate bid has lost steam heading into the last ninety days. Congressman Garry Peters (D) will win Carl Levin’s vacated seat.
Minnesota: Franken (i) v. McFadden
RCP Poll Average: Franken +10.5
2012 Presidential: Obama 54.3%
Prediction: The funniest Senator is going to win his first reelection contest by more than 500 votes. Al Franken (D) was a writer for SNL before moving back home to run for office, but has since convinced voters that he is a dedicated and serious U.S. Senator. Mike McFadden (R) fought through a GOP primary, and the football coach may not even put up a fight at the polls. Some have called McFadden a dark horse, but I think Franken wins by double digits, no joke.
Montana: Curtis v. Daines (Open Seat)
RCP Poll Average: Daines +18 (yes, 18)
2012 Presidential: Romney 55.3%
Prediction: The Democrats pulled out all the stops to hold on to Max Baucus’ seat. Yes, they shipped the sponsor of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act all the way to China so they could appoint Sen. John Walsh (D) to fill his spot. This was in hopes of giving him an “incumbency advantage,” but the Democrats put their eggs in the wrong basket. Walsh recently had his master’s degree revoked due to severe plagiarism. This sent the Democratic hopes of holding onto Montana out the window. Steve Daines (R) is going to easily win.
New Hampshire: Shaheen (i) v. Scott Brown
RCP Poll Average: Shaheen +2.2
2012 Presidential: Obama 52.2%
Prediction: This is an interesting race and, like Colorado, is another example of the GOP “expanding the map” and increasing the number of competitive races. Jeanne Shaheen (D) is a longtime political figure in New Hampshire and has previously served as the state’s governor. Scott Brown (R), on the other hand, grew up in New Hampshire, but served as a Senator from Massachusetts. Shaheen has a few problems to confront, and that may just tip the scales for Brown. Obamacare is very unpopular in New Hampshire due to drastic medical network restrictions associated with Obamacare insurance plans. Shaheen’s races have historically tightened at the finish, but she often pulls them out. I predict Shaheen will hold onto her seat.
New Jersey: Booker (i) v. Bell
RCP Poll Average: Booker +15.6
2012 Presidential: Obama 58%
Prediction: Cory Booker (D) defeated Steve Lonegan (R) in the 2013 Special Election, and that may have been his only real contest. The 2013 election produced one of the most entertaining debates I have ever watched though. So, if you don’t want to do homework, look it up on Youtube. Lots of one-liners. Previously, Booker was a controversial mayor of Newark. He faces a weak challenger and should retain his seat.
North Carolina: Hagan (i) v. Tillis
RCP Average: Hagan +1.6
2012 Presidential: Romney 50.6%
Prediction: Kay Hagan (D) has done her best to distance herself from an unpopular president, and it just may have been enough. The polls are close, but most people are saying Hagan will win, and I agree. Sean Haugh (L) may just take away enough of Thom Tillis’ (R) vote share to put Hagan over the top. Also, Tillis is the speaker of the unpopular State House. So that isn’t helping him much. I think Hagan wins.
Oregon: Merkley (i) v. Wehby
RCP Average: Merkley +13.5
2012 Presidential: Obama 54.5%
Prediction: Dr. Monica Wehby (R) is an interesting candidate; she’s a neurosurgeon and more libertarian, supporting many middle of the road social stances. However, that will not be enough to overtake Jeff Merkley (D), who should easily win.
South Dakota: Weiland v. Rounds (Open Seat)
RCP Poll Average: Rounds +10.2
2012 Presidential: Romney 57.9%
Prediction: Mike Rounds (R) is going to win, this race really was never that close. There are four Candidates in the race, two of whom will detract from making Rick Weiland (D) a true threat to Rounds’ healthy lead.
Virginia: Warner (i) v. Gillespie
RCP Poll Average: Warner +10.6
2012 Presidential: Obama 50.8%
Prediction: Mark Warner (D) is a relatively moderate Senator and former business exec. He has done a lot of bipartisan work, most notably in the “Gang of Eight” who often are the source of major compromises. He faces former RNC Chair and Bush White House Staffer Ed Gillespie (R). Warner is going to win with ease.
West Virginia: Tennant v. Capito (Open Seat)
RCP Poll Average: Capito +16.6
2012 Presidential: Romney 62.3%
Prediction: Both of these candidates initially seamed very strong, but Congresswomen Shelly Moore Capito (R) has pulled ahead. She faces Secretary of State, and former UWV mascot, Natalie Tennant (D). Tennant, however, made the mistake of bringing Sen. Warren (D-MA) to West Virginia, where she probably was less than helpful. On the other hand, Paul Ryan (R-WI) was better received. Capito will win handily.
