Lost Winter Climate Change Threatens State Economy

Author: Jonathan White

As fall turns to winter, meteorologists and scientists will be watching Mother Nature's every move in Vermont. Was this weekend's snowfall a prelude to a cold and snowy winter? Will balmy temperatures prevail? However this winter turns out, it will offer scientists the chance to continue sorting out the swirling questions surrounding climate change.
The New England Regional Assessment by the U.S. Global Climate Change Research Program, a committee established in 1990 by then-President George H. W. Bush, concluded that New England's climate is a degree warmer than it was a century ago. Vermont's average temperatures have jumped 1.6 degrees Fahrenheit in this time period. Some states in New England, notably Rhode Island, have seen average temperatures rise by as much as two degrees.
The report also indicates that New England's climate will warm between six and 10 degrees this century. Visiting Scholar in Environmental Studies Bill McKibben warned last week that if such trends materialize, "Those postcard images of Vermont, you can toss out the window. That Vermont won't exist." Vermont's blazing autumns, snowy winters and pleasant summers will be but calling cards of a time gone by. Accordingly, the state's tourism and agricultural industries would be noticeably affected by these changes.
An analysis released earlier this fall by the Associated Press showed that maple syrup production has declined in Vermont over the past century. Eighty years ago, Vermont produced nearly 1.6 million gallons of maple syrup. Production quantity now hovers under 800,000 gallons. While changes in lifestyle and economic patterns are partly responsible for this decrease, warmer winter temperatures are also to blame. Milder winters cause sugar maple trees to generate lower quantities of sap, yielding less syrup. Winter temperatures averaged three degrees warmer in the 1990s than they did in the 1890s.
Chris Granstrom, who owns and operates a strawberry farm in New Haven, observed, "Different farmers will be affected in different ways." Granstrom reflected that maple syrup producers are absorbing the impact of a changed season, while other farmers are comparatively less affected.
Granstrom said that a common perception is that cold is the biggest adversary for