COLUMN Middle Ground

Author: Fahim Ahmed

With former Vice President Al Gore announcing that he will not run for President in 2004, the race for the Democratic nomination seems as wide open as ever. Candidates that have lined up thus far for the party nod, ranges from the far left (Reverend Al Sharpton), to the conservative right-wing (former Vice Presidential candidate Senator Joseph Lieberman). Nevertheless, no clear front-runner, who seems poised to challenge the popular sitting President, has yet emerged from the impressive list of hopefuls.
So far, a handful of politicians have announced their intent to run for the Democratic Party nomination. Alternatively, a couple of party leaders, including Vice President Gore and Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle, have dropped out of the race. The contenders for the nomination currently includes: Senator John Kerry (MA), Senator John Edwards (N.C.), Senator Joseph Lieberman (CT), former House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt (MO) and former Vermont Governor Howard Dean. Several other prominent Democrats including: Senator Joseph Biden (DE), Senator Bob Graham (FL), former Senator Gary Hart (CO), and Reverend Al Sharpton (NY) have also been reported to be a mulling presidential bid.
While none of the contenders have taken a clear lead in the run-up to the primaries, the relative strengths and weaknesses of the candidates are still apparent even at this early stage of the election trail. Clearly, Senator Lieberman enjoys the greatest name recognition as Al Gore's running mate in Election 2000. In a recent survey conducted by CNN, Lieberman tied for second place among Democratic candidates most likely to win the nomination. (The winner in the poll, Senator Hillary Clinton (NY), is not even running for the ticket). Despite his early advantages, Senator Lieberman faces an uphill task in winning popular support from within his party. Announcing his candidacy for President, Lieberman had pledged to be a 'different kind of Democrat' . A conservative Democrat, who has co-authored the Senate resolution to authorize President Bush to use military action in Iraq, supported the use of vouchers to provide public funding for private school tuition, and touts a pro-business voting record finds himself facing dual challenges. First, he is unable to appeal to the liberal wing of the Party as a candidate who presenting a refreshing alternative to the incumbent conservative. Second, his minority background as an Orthodox Jew is unlikely swing the southern states, gravitating towards the Republican sphere of influence in recent elections, back into the Democratic fold.
Senator John Kerry, who tied with Lieberman for second place in the CNN poll, on the other hand represents centrist platform within the Democratic Party that has constituted the mainstream over the past decade. A decorated war veteran turned anti-war activist, Senator Kerry has recently emerged as a vocal opponent of the White House and the Republican Party. Kerry had led the criticism of former Republican Senate Leader Trent Lott, where others in his party including Daschle had vacillated. Should Kerry be able to win the neighboring New Hampshire in the early primary, he stands a terrific chance at emerging as the early favorite. Married to the wealthy Heinz family, Kerry recently ran a virtually uncontested election for his Senate seat, which gives him a distinct edge in fund-raising.
John Edwards, the freshman Senator from North Carolina, is perhaps the quintessential Democratic candidate for President. A successful lawyer turned politician, Edwards at 48 is the youngest in the race. The Democrats strategy in the past presidential elections had been to back a Southern candidate who is able to make inroads into the Republican strongholds, while carrying the liberal Northeastern and Pacific states. Clinton and Gore had both fit into this profile. However, unlike his distinguished predecessors, Edwards has had only limited experience in office, and that is likely to pose the greatest drawback in his campaign for President.
Congressman Gephardt, recently having relinquished his position as House Minority Leader, will also face criticism for his failure to lead the Democrats to a majority in the past four congressional elections. Also under heat has been his long-standing support for government deficit spending as a means for lifting the economy out of recession. Predictably, Dick Gephardt fails to appeal to the fiscally conservative wing of the Democratic Party.
The surprise candidate in the Democratic short-list, is certainly former Vermont Governor Howard Dean. Governor Dean, lauded for his fiscal conservatism and balanced budget approach in the nineties, is the only candidate from outside Capitol Hill, and thus may rally support among the rank and file. However, his signing of the Civil Union Bill into law is likely to come under heavy scrutiny as he approaches the primaries, and may indeed turn out to be his bane.
Thus, the bid for the Democratic nomination is currently a three-way race between Kerry, Lieberman and Edwards, with Kerry holding the potential advantage. However, with the electorate increasingly favoring 'outsiders' for President, Howard Dean may emerge as the little-known governor who took Washington by storm. Sound familiar?