COLUMN Middle Ground Reasons that Bush is Beatable

Author: Fahim Ahmed

As President Bush prepares his State of the Union address to outline the policies for the second half of his tenure, he must confront a solemn but distinct possibility: that he is indeed beatable in the 2004 presidential election.

Despite the fact that no single Democrat has yet emerged as the clear front-runner for the party ticket, President Bush's reelection hopes will hinge on his performance at home and abroad.

Whereas historically, the Republican Party has rallied around a candidate early into the run-up to the elections, more often than not, the candidate ultimately winning the Democratic ticket has invariably been one that had picked up the momentum later during the primaries.

It is that positive momentum, coupled with his own mixed performance in office that may vote Bush out of the White House in 2004.

The state of the economy has traditionally played a determining role in shaping the outcome of the elections.

Several studies have found a positive correlation between the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the economy and the reelection prospects of the incumbent.

Arguably, the economy has been, both in the distant and recent past, the most significant factor in the election.

Clearly, that does not bode well for President Bush.

Early indications are already apparent, as the president's approval ratings this month have dropped below 60 percent for the first time since Sept. 11.

Furthermore, only 48 percent in a recent poll approve of President Bush's handling of the economy. and 43 percent support his federal budget policies.

The president's most recent tax-cut plan, worth $670 billion, has drawn further criticism as benefiting only a small minority of higher-income taxpayers.

Also, his proposal to cut dividend taxes is unlikely to draw investors back into a market weakened by the stuttering economy and corporate malfeasance.

In fact, what has been drawing investors away from the market is the Bush administration's posturing on an impending war on Iraq. President Bush and his foreign policy advisers have increasingly been taking a more hawkish stance on Iraq.

While most Americans are in favor of a multilateral strike against Iraq, with the backing of the United Nations, fewer are willing to support unilateral military action.

The administration, however, has made it clear that the U.S. is prepared to act alone, and that it is unwilling to accept 'multilateralism as an excuse for inaction.'

The Bush administration's current focus on Iraq comes at the cost of endangering its own national security interests.

Critics, Democrats included, have pointed out that whereas Iraq does not possess a missile delivery system, North Korea does. North Korea is also less willing to comply with the international inspection process.

Further, the recent Al-Qaeda attacks in Bali, and Mombasa, Kenya, demonstrates that the war on terrorism is far from over. The administration's leadership in nation-building in Afghanistan has also come under criticism and the central Asian nation remains tenuously poised between unrest and stability.

Therefore, as the Democrats consider their presidential hopefuls, the Party may find significant rallying points in the economy, the war on Iraq, and U.S. national security interests to vote a popular incumbent out of the White House.

Bush is beatable.