Both parties claim victories in Vermont National Democrats win House majority

Author: Derek Schlickeisen

Democrat Peter Welch and left-leaning Independent Bernie Sanders won Vermont's open House and Senate seats Tuesday night, while Republican Governor Jim Douglas sailed past Democratic challenger Scudder Parker.

Though Sanders and Douglas had long been predicted to win their respective contests, the race between Welch and Republican Martha Rainville had remained close until the last few days of the campaign, during which Welch opened up a lead of about 10 percent.

Professor of Political Science Eric Davis, who predicted a Welch win last week, said that Democrats won what had been a competitive House race by successfully tying the relatively moderate Rainville to the more conservative national Republican Party.

"The message [from Vermont voters] is that this election is a referendum on the Bush administration and on the Republican Congress, and that we need a change in leadership," said Davis. "This campaign is being decided on national issues, not the personalities of the candidates. Neither Peter Welch nor Martha Rainville inspires either particularly enthusiastic or polarized response."

Spending on the Welch-Rainville race topped $3 million, a high total compared to previous House races in Vermont.

Davis also predicted that Sanders' win over Republican Rich Tarrant, who turned off many Vermonters with a barrage of negative advertising, would bring an interesting voice to the Senate. Sanders, an avowed Socialist, has been known for his outspoken support of what he calls "the little guy" in American politics.

"It will be very interesting to see over the next six to twelve months how Bernie Sanders and the Senate adapt to each other," Davis said. "He has strongly held views, and the Senate gives you more of a platform."

Students and Democratic leaders on campus hailed Welch and Sanders' victories as good signs for the Democratic Party in Vermont.

"Peter Welch ran a great campaign," said Emily Theriault '07, a leader of the College Democrats. "His success is part of a nationwide vote for change. The 109th Congress failed to resonate with voters and we hope that with Democratic successes like Welch, the next Congress will address growing dissatisfaction with the Iraq war and U.S. energy policy."

Republicans on campus, however, said that voters' rejection of the moderate Rainville based on her party identification was disappointing.

"A defeat of Martha Rainville by Peter Welch is another example of voters exchanging vision and leadership for empty promises," said Stefan Claypool '09, co-president of the College Republicans. "Rainville ran an excellent, positive campaign that stressed optimism, in sharp contrast to her opponent. I am very disappointed in this outcome."

Celey Schumer '09 of St. Albans, Vermont, said she voted for Sanders because his message was compelling - and his opponent's message much less so.

"I've been following Bernie's race because I like him best," she said, "and Tarrant just seemed to be throwing his money around to make Bernie look bad." Tarrant, the former CEO of IDX Systems Corporation, spent a portion of his personal fortune to finance paid television ads against Sanders.

Tarrant's barrage of attacks, however, stands in contrast with the "clean" House campaign run by Welch and Rainville. As studies by national news outlets like CNN have concluded, Vermont's House race may have been the only race in the nation this year that did not see a single negative advertisement run.

"Both Rainville and Welch made a commitment to a clean campaign long before Rich Tarrant went negative," said Davis. "But Tarrant's ads backfired so badly that it probably prevented the national parties from running any negative ads, either."


Republicans retain governorship

Though analysts never predicted that Democrat Scudder Parker would unseat incumbent Governor and Middlebury graduate Jim Douglas '75, they had thought that Parker could make the race competitive in spite of Douglas' charisma and popularity.

"I don't think Scudder Parker has ever convincingly made the case for why voters should fire Jim Douglas," said Davis. "Douglas spends a lot of time getting to meet and greet people. He comes across as a friendly, open and accessible person. He's about as far away from a polarizing political figure as you can get."

College Republicans hailed Douglas' re-election as a sign that moderate Republicans remain competitive in the state.

"The reelection of Jim Douglas is not unexpected, and represents a triumph for the party statewide," said Claypool. "Douglas has proven to be an excellent governor over the last several years, and brings a great balance to Vermont politics. He is a red fish in a blue sea, and will continue to pave the road to a better Vermont for us all."

Democratic leaders on campus were less enthusiastic about the governorship.

"While Douglas has proven himself to be open to compromise, his strong support of President Bush, his tax-cap proposal and his obstruction of new wilderness makes him a threat to local values," said Theriault. "Vermont has the opportunity to be a leader on issues such as health care and global warming, but under Douglas' guidance it has made minimal gains. We supported Scudder Parker's campaign and are disappointed that the state missed a chance to become a national leader on these crucial issues."


A national Democratic wave

At press time, the Democrats had picked up 26 House seats for certain, with nine more headed for recounts and another in Texas headed for a special runoff election. They had needed only 15 seats to gain control of that chamber. While multiple victories in Northeast states like Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and New York gave Democrats most of their gains, little-known candidates in conservative districts in states like Kentucky and Kansas - as well as a rural California district - also pulled out narrow wins.

Democrats won big in several districts where scandals had played a prominent role in the race. Former Representative Nick Lampson (D), for example, defeated the Republican nominee in disgraced Representative Tom DeLay (R)'s district in Texas. In Florida, Democrat Tim Mahoney beat Republican Joe Negron in the district vacateed by Mark Foley, the Republican who admitted to soliciting sex from his former Congressional interns. While Negron had run a strong campaign, Foley withdrew from the race so late that his name - and not Negron's - appeared on the ballot, meaning that a vote for Foley represented a vote for Negron. Despite Negron's "Punch Mark Foley for Joe" slogan, many voters in this socially conservative district could not bring themselves to vote for Foley, even as a technicality.

The balance of power in the Senate remained in doubt Wednesday morning as races in Virginia and Montana remained too close to call and were also headed for recounts. Democrats had confirmed victories in Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Ohio and Missouri, where their challengers unseated four sitting GOP Senators. With the FBI investigating charges of voter intimidation in some portions of Virginia, Democrat Jim Webb led incumbent Republican Senator George Allen by a mere 8,000 votes among more than two million cast. If Democrats were to win in both Virginia and Montana, they would gain control of the Senate as well.