Summer breeze heats up J-term

Author: Aylie Baker

Crocuses are blooming in New Jersey. People are waterskiing in Minnesota. This past Saturday, students were wearing shorts here in Vermont. It's still only the beginning of winter, but things are certainly heating up.

This winter across the country, people are shedding coats and mittens to bask in balmy, record-setting temperatures. In fact, in many places it's almost as though winter has not yet arrived. According to the Associated Press, New York City experienced a November and December without snow for the first time since 1877.

Vermont has been no exception to this phenomenon. Already this year, there have been several days with record-high temperatures and for many Vermonters, this winter stands out as one of the warmest ever. "I've been living here my whole life," said Celey Schumer '09 of St. Albans, Vermont, "and I really can't remember a winter like this one - one with so little snow, or with temperatures that hadn't dropped below ten degrees."

Don Mitchell, lecturer in English & Film and Media Culture as well as a part-time farmer, has lived through 32 winters in Vermont and echoes Schumer's sentiments. For Mitchell, "This is certainly the mildest 'winter' [he's experienced] by far. By far."

So what's the cause? The warm spell could be due to a number of factors, insist meteorologists. El NiÒo, the cyclical warming of ocean waters in the Pacific Ocean, can cause warmer weather, particularly in the Northeast. Or perhaps it's the jet stream, a high-altitude air current which essentially acts as a buffer to warm Southern air, which CNN reports is running much farther North than usual over the East Coast this year.

Many meteorologists insist that short-term fluctuations in the weather are normal. After all, winter is not yet over. Some forecasters predict that the arctic air masses are likely to sweep through later in January, perhaps prolonging the winter into the spring months.

But this year's mild winter is not such an anomaly in comparison to recent years. In fact, it's likely the continuation of a trend. According to USA Today, of the top 25 warmest years recorded in U.S. history, 15 of them have occurred since 1981.

The National Climatic Data Center recently released data indicating that 2006 was the warmest winter in U.S. history. In Vermont, last winter was declared the 10th warmest on record in Burlington.

"I can't help wondering and worrying, of course, about the extent to which this warm and wet winter is a 'typical anomaly,'" explained Mitchell. Like many other Vermonters, he is concerned about "the extent to which it's a startlingly clear assertion of the long term 'global warming' trend that we've all been made well aware of in recent years."

In addition to confirming fears regarding global warming, this year's winter has had a major effect on Vermont's industry and agriculture. Ask any member of the Middlebury Ski Team, and they'll tell you how few days they've had on the trails this winter, and, in their sparing practices, how few trails have been open. Ski resorts aren't the only ones suffering. Sales of snowmobiles, shovels, snow blowers and winter apparel are all lagging.

The repercussions of warmer winter weather have not been entirely negative. According to the Burlington Free Press, Vermont maple trees began running sap much earlier this past spring, significantly boosting maple syrup revenues. Many Vermonters were also spared a seemingly imminent heating crisis due to the milder climate. With warmer weather, those Vermonters struggling to heat their houses due to rising oil prices emerged into springtime relatively unscathed.

Despite these positive effects, one thing is certain: If warm winters are to continue, industry and agriculture will have to shift dramatically. While Mitchell insists that he is no expert in climatology, he is sure of at least one thing, "If we're looking at a long term shift in the sort of weather we've come to expect here in Vermont - and I'm referring as much to the excessive rainfall as the warmer temperatures - then agriculture as we've come to know it here will need to be rethought from the ground up," he said. The forage species grown locally as feed for livestock are suited to weather patterns very different from those that we've experienced in Vermont over the last two years. Indeed, if this year's mild winter proves not an anomaly but rather the beginning of a trend, asserts Mitchell, "the consequences for area farmers are rather catastrophic." Warm, sunny days are always a treat - no matter what time of year. Yet when we begin to experience weeks of summer-y weather in the midst of winter, one cannot help but feel eerily unsettled. "At first it was weird, but now it's definitely getting scary," said Schumer.

So, while the College may be saving a bundle on heat this winter, 60 degree weather in the beginning of January certainly begs the question: where are we headed?