MiddKids plunge into the 2008 primaries

Author: Cecelia Goldschmidt

We've heard it time and again: students at Middlebury are apathetic and tuned out from today's political goings-on. Well, this week The Campus set out in search of students who have bucked the trend with their involvement in the 2008 primaries, either on campus or by volunteering on behalf of a campaign. From trudging through the New Hampshire snows for Barack Obama to offering a conservative alternative to the liberal fare more common here at Middlebury, these five students (and one of their professors) share their thoughts on what has already been a hotly contested election season.

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Heather Pangle '10

"The Republican field is so wide open this year, it keeps me on my toes," said Heather Pangle '10, one of the presidents of the Middlebury College Republicans. There are about nine active members of the College Republicans. As president, Pangle holds meetings and organizes speakers and debates. When asked about the political atmosphere at Middlebury, Pangle observed, "It is developing. It was pretty dead last year, but with the upcoming election, people are getting more enthusiastic." Even still, however, Pangle does not view the campus to be very politically active. "A lot of people don't have the time to stay informed," she noted.

Although most of the members of the College Republicans are Mitt Romney supporters, Pangle is a big-time supporter of John McCain. In her opinion, McCain is the "least corrupted by the whole system" in that he is more sincere than other politicians and is more willing to stand up for what he believes. Pangle also asserted, "He is a true moderate, in my opinion, which is best for the country and most representative." Pangle noted that McCain is talking about environmental issues like global warming and is "willing to work across party lines."

"McCain has the best chance of defeating a Democrat, so I hope he gets the nomination," Pangle said, adding, "I think Huckabee is bad news. I wouldn't want him as a nominee because he wouldn't win, and if he did win, it would be bad for the country." However, if a Democrat had to win, Pangle said, "I suspect Clinton would do the best job because she has a lot of experience. I don't know though, as I'm less informed about the Democrats."

Although right now there has been much talk that McCain has a good chance of getting the nomination, Pangle acknowledged that so much could happen between now and the summer. "I think it's possible McCain will get a bunch of states by small margins, but it's hard to tell and so up in the air," she said. "I can't really make any predictions."

Emily Gullickson '10

Emily Gullickson '10, president of the Middlebury College Democrats, noted that the political atmosphere at Middlebury is not what she expected it to be. "For a liberal campus, there's not much activism," she said. As president, Gullickson described her role in the group to be to create a setting for everyone to discuss different topics and issues. Right now, there are about 10 regular members in the College Democrats, but the number appears to be steadily growing. Although the group has explored all of the candidates, Gullickson observed that the majority of the members of the College Democrats are steadfast supporters of Barack Obama.

"This is probably my favorite race," Gullickson said. "On the Democratic side, there's a lot to get excited about. When I look at Obama, Clinton and Edwards, I think they're all strong candidates." Still, Gullickson is not impartial. "I prefer Obama," she said. "Obama will bring change to Washington." Gullickson was with Bellaimey in New Hampshire to campaign for Obama before the New Hampshire primary and labeled it as "one of the coolest things I've done." Although many were deeply upset when Obama lost New Hampshire to Clinton, Gullickson was not disconcerted. As she said, "I'm a Democrat from South Dakota, so I'm used to things being all over the place. That's why New Hampshire didn't surprise me."

On the other hand, Gullickson is not impressed by the Republican candidates and expressed that she does not believe that any of them are particularly strong. "There are three very different Republican candidates, so it is hard to find what you want in any of them." Still, Gullickson predicts that John McCain will end up winning the Republican nomination. Although unable to predict who will end up winning the Democratic nomination, Gullickson feels very excited for what is to come in the elections. "We are actually going to have a political race this year.," she said.

Stefan Claypool '09

"There are more Conservatives and Republicans at Middlebury than one would expect, but they are not so forthcoming about it," said Stefan Claypool '09, an active member of the Middlebury College Republicans. Although he believes that Giuliani and McCain show good leadership, and that Romney is strongest on economic issues, Claypool is a Fred Thompson-supporter as he believes that Thompson is "strongest in terms of Republican ideals."

"I don't know if Fred Thompson has a legitimate chance to win the nominee, but I prefer him," said Claypool in an interview prior to Thompson's withdrawal from the presidential race on Jan. 22. The only candidate that Claypool would adamantly not vote for is Mike Huckabee. "If Huckabee were to win, it would gain a voice disproportionate to what it actually is in the United States," he said. Claypool does not actually think that Huckabee has a chance, however, and believes that he lost his momentum after his win in Iowa.

Regarding his own prediction, Claypool said, "I don't feel comfortable making a prediction right now, but if John McCain wins South Carolina, I think he'll win the nomination. If John McCain is the nominee, I think he'll win the presidency." Claypool noted that he believed this to be true especially if McCain were up against Clinton.

"On the Democratic side, it's always been a two-person race between Clinton and Obama," Claypool said. Still, Claypool believes that both candidates have a slim chance. "The big thing that's hurting Obama right now is that he's popular among students and first-time voters but less so among the more experienced voters," Claypool commented. Claypool suggested that Obama's liberal reputation could hurt him in a lot of states and prevent him from being as unifying as many think he could be. As for Clinton, Claypool noted, "She's been in the spotlight for too long, and a lot of people have already formed their opinions about her."

Still, Claypool stated, "It's a very dynamic race."

Will Bellaimey '10.5

"I knocked on doors for five days," Will Bellaimey '10.5 said of his experience in New Hampshire campaigning for Barack Obama before the state's Jan. 8 primary. Bellaimey coordinated approximately 22 other Middlebury students to head over to New Hampshire the first weekend of Winter Term to talk to New Hampshire voters, answer questions that they had, and to give voters more information about Obama. Although Bellaimey has the impression that Middlebury "is a very active school that's not very political" and that politics are more often a hobby than personally important to a lot of people, he was very pleasantly surprised about how many students were interested in going to New Hampshire.

After these five days of relentless work, Bellaimey was extremely let down about Obama's loss to Clinton in New Hampshire. "I was shocked about his loss," he said. "New Hampshire voters seemed to really like Obama. We were on a conference call with Obama the night before, and everyone was so excited about him winning." Bellaimey partially blames the media for Obama's surprising loss in the state. He feels that there was such media frenzy after Obama won in Iowa that the expectations were too high for Obama. Because Cli
nton was bashed so much after Iowa, Bellaimey believes that the "rebellious vote" went to Clinton. In addition, Bellaimey explained that the media frenzy caused independent voters to believe that Obama would win without their votes, so they voted for McCain.

"I think we have a great Democratic field and a very weak Republican field," said Bellaimey. So why is he so passionate about Obama? Bellaimey actually got the chance to meet Obama this summer at the YearlyKos Convention. At the time, he was a supporter of John Edwards, but Bellaimey was very impressed when Obama spoke and noted that he answered questions directly, unlike other politicians. Overall, Bellaimey believes that Obama shows a "brilliant" knowledge of politics and, very importantly, "is inspiring people." "Obama is a unifying figure," said Bellaimey. "He wants to get past the war of evangelical Christians versus secular liberals."

Matt Dickinson

"Running for the presidency is very different from governing as president. History says the best presidents are those that understand the limits to their power," said Professor of Political Science Matt Dickinson. In assessing the student body's excitement over the elections, Dickinson said, "I'm impressed by the level of interest. My presidency course was filled up this year, something that usually happens election year."

It is clear from speaking with Dickinson that he knows what he is talking about, and it becomes very tempting to try to find out his own expert opinion on the candidates. However, if you ever ask Dickinson which of the candidates he believes would make the best or worst president, you will not get an answer. "Some of my colleagues actively support specific candidates, and I admire them, but I try to remain neutral," Dickinson said. Dickinson takes his role as a political science professor very seriously and knows the strong influence that his opinions could have on his students. In his effort to really try to be neutral in his profession, Dickinson has even made the decision not to vote in the elections.

Dickinson's general opinion on the primaries so far is that there have been very few surprises, and he stated that that is "good from a political science perspective." Dickinson was also very adamant to emphasize how important it is to understand that the media interprets many things incorrectly, such as in representing Obama's loss in New Hampshire as such a huge upset after his big win in Iowa, and he noted the necessity of "looking at each of the primaries as separate horse races." Dickinson advised, "Be very skeptical of media emphasis on momentum."

As for predictions, Dickinson seems quite certain that Clinton will get the Democratic nomination and that McCain will win the Republican nomination. While Dickinson predicted Clinton mostly based on forecast models, he admitted that McCain was "more of a gut thing."

Bryant Cobb '11

"Our big goal is to beat the Republicans," said Bryant Cobb '11, a member of the Middlebury College Democrats. Although Clinton seems to be leading the race so far among the Democratic candidates, Cobb feels like a minority on campus are Hillary supporters. "I'm the only person who regularly goes to the College Dems that supports Clinton," he commented.

When asked why he will be voting for Clinton, Cobb mentioned that he likes her character, but focused mostly on her greater amount of experience compared to Obama, as well as her greater ability to bring about change. "When you get down to it, the president will only have about 18 months in office to get stuff done," he said. "I don't want someone in the White House who has so much he wants to fix, because there just isn't enough time. He doesn't have the time to find the file cabinets." As to what it would mean for the United States to have a woman president, Cobb added, "Having a woman president would make a very powerful statement around the world. It would be revolutionary."

Still, Cobb feels as if he supports most of the same ideals that Obama supporters do, as one differentiation he made between Democrats and Republicans is that, "unlike the Republicans, Democrats seem to support all of the same issues." Because of the varied wins among candidates, including Clinton's victory in New Hampshire, Cobb noted, "Both races are pretty clouded right now. They have been very unpredictable." However, he believes that in a way this unpredictability could be favorable for the Democrats.

"The Republicans are used to coalescing around one candidate, but they don't have that right now," said Cobb. "Democrats are used to battling it out."