Vermonters gear up for upcoming primary

Author: Derek Schlickeisen

Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have begun lavishing money and attention on tiny Vermont in the lead-up to the Democratic primary here on March 4. With Republican Senator John McCain commanding a prohibitive lead in the race for his party's nomination, the state's television and radio waves have been dominated by advertisements from the Clinton and Obama campaigns.

The race in Vermont

In the wake of 11 straight losses, observers say Clinton is merely looking to hold down Obama's margin of victory in the state while concentrating on the delegate-rich Texas and Ohio primaries - also held on March 4 - as a means of erasing the Illinois senator's lead in pledged delegates. Recent polls of likely primary voters show her trailing in Vermont by as much as 25 percent.

"The state is tailor-made for Obama," said Professor of Political Science Matthew Dickinson. "Likely Democratic voters are very progressive, and Obama is generally viewed as the most liberal member of the Senate. Clinton's strength is among more traditional Democratic voters [with] lower income and education levels. There aren't as many of those voters here in Vermont."

Dickinson also noted that the Vermont Democratic Party's open primary system, which allows independents and Republicans to participate, will likely allow Obama to attract the type of crossover voters who have supported his candidacy in the past.

In addition to the favorable demographic landscape, Obama's fundraising lead (he raised $32 million in January, to Clinton's $13.5 million) allowed him to open a campaign office and begin advertising well in advance of his opponent. Obama has also benefited from free radio play of "Yes We Can," a tribute song produced by Black Eyed Peas member Will.I.Am, on several "Top 40" stations in the state.

"Obama has been hitting the airways more heavily than Clinton with advertising, and his ground campaign is better organized," Dickinson explained. "Clinton's organization is late getting started, and she is only beginning to run campaign ads."

Despite her opponent's advantages, however, Clinton is ceding nothing in a state whose 16 delegates - awarded proportionally based roughly on each candidate's percent of the popular vote - will matter greatly given Obama's razor-thin lead of only 85 delegates in the race for the nomination. Her campaign opened its own office in South Burlington this week, and on Tuesday announced the support of former Gov. Madeleine Kunin and State House Speaker Gaye Symington.

Obama has been endorsed by Rep. Peter Welch and Sen. Patrick Leahy, as well as "Ben & Jerry's" co-founders Ben Cohen and Jerry Greenfield.

Students on the trail

An unlikely scenario - that the nomination is still being closely contested at this late date - has given students at the College an opportunity to make an impact in the race.

"Vermont is a small state, with a homogenous population," said Dickinson. "It almost has the feel of a caucus state. This allows for more grassroots organization, which rewards intensity of preference."

This ground-level organizing, which has been a strength of the Obama campaign in the past, is part of the draw for Middlebury students like Emily Gullickson '10, President of the College Democrats and who is helping to coordinate support for Obama here at the College.

"The grassroots structure of politics in Vermont is more suited for the style and tone of Obama's campaign," she said. "The presence of the youth vote, one of Obama's strongest constituencies, at Middlebury and UVM probably helped support for him catch on early and grow stronger throughout the primary season."

Gullickson hastened to add, however, that while many of the students who volunteered did so for Obama, Clinton has also enjoyed the support of a vocal minority.

"We have anywhere from 10 to 15 members at any given meeting, but closer to 25 members overall who have been active in a campaign," she said. "The majority of the group members are Obama supporters, but Hillary is not without a voice. I think any member of the group will tell you that there is a lot to be proud of in the Democratic Party right now."

Antoinette Rangel '09 has been one Clinton's strongest voices on campus. The active College Democrats member volunteered with Clinton's campaign over the summer and was a panelist at a Feb. 20 student forum on the primaries.

"I believe that Hillary has the experience to lead starting on day one," said Rangel. "Over the years she has been a champion for a lot of what I believe in, namely improving our education as well as defending women's rights. She also has been an advocate for mandatory universal healthcare, which I believe is needed in America."

Over, but not out

Dickinson and other analysts now say that former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, the only challenger to McCain yet to drop out of the Republican race, has no plausible path to an upset victory. Vermont and its 17 delegates to the GOP convention, however, may still have a role to play in the race.

"Huckabee is irrelevant at this point," said Dickinson. "There's no state out there that he can win outright now, except perhaps Mississippi. But McCain should clinch [the 1,191 necessary delegates] before then. He may even do so on March 4, thanks to Vermont."

With the competitive portion of the GOP primary now over, College Republicans President Heather Pangle '10 said that her organization and its dozen active members will likely save their energy for the general election.

"Most of the membership supported Romney, but now that he's dropped out, the majority are backing McCain," she said. "We have no plans as yet to do any campaigning for the Vermont primary, but we will probably be active in some manner for McCain in the fall when the national contest has taken off."

In case you were wondering

With Texas and Ohio looming much larger than Vermont (and Rhode Island, which also holds its primary on March 4), none of the major candidates from either party has made an appearance in the Green Mountain state. While the Clinton campaign is weighing sending former First Daughter Chelsea to the state, even those plans remain tentative.

The trend is nothing new, however - George W. Bush has visited 49 states as president. Vermont is number 50.