Shenanigans Breaking down the battle

Author: Alex Garlick

The Democratic Primary has had all the characteristics of a heavyweight title bout this year. There have been lots of verbal punches thrown, some low blows and a lot of blowhards beside the ring. I can even picture Howard Dean as the referee (he's got the scream for it). Barack Obama stole the first round of our metaphor in Iowa, and then Hillary Clinton took the second round in New Hampshire. Let's break down the last legs of this fight.

The Scorecard: Heading into Pennsylvania, Barack is currently up in the delegate count 1,414 to 1,243. This lead is not large, but it is vital. If Hillary had that lead, this race would be over. Advantage: Obama

Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania is the new Ohio in terms of importance for Democrats. Hillary has the lead here and things should fall her way. Pennsylvania's demographics are favorable for her, especially the vast rural areas. That being said, Barack is outspending Hillary four-to-one, and is supposedly closing fast - a Monday polls reports the race to be a dead heat. We'll know for sure on April 22. Advantage: Clinton (for now)

North Carolina: This race is shaping up to look like Mike Tyson vs. Peter McNeely (hint: racial stereotypes apply). Big Advantage: Obama

Superdelegates: Hillary leads here 245 to 217; I've maintained that from the start, Hillary is more in tune with the Democratic establishment, and if push came to shove, it will fall in line behind her. However, I later wrote that superdelegates don't want to rock the boat too much, and will probably end up supporting whoever the people choose. I'm no longer that optimistic. Advantage: Clinton

Verbal Blunder: Clinton claimed that in 1996 she landed in Bosnia under "sniper fire," and then added, "There was supposed to be some kind of a greeting ceremony at the airport, but instead we just ran with our heads down to get into the vehicles to get to our base." The only problem with that compelling story is that she made the entire thing up. Not to be outdone, Barack said this over the weekend in relation to "bitter" working-class voters, "They cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations." This diatribe has The New York Times comparing him to Karl Marx, and must have a lot of god-fearin', second-amendment lovin' Barack supporters questioning their allegiance to him (assuming there were any in the first place). While both statements are bad, Hillary is probably not going to lose any votes. Advantage: Clinton

Media Attention: After fawning over Obama for months, the media seems to have taken a cue from "Saturday Night Live." Being tough on Obama is now en vogue. But even when Obama's feathers are ruffled, like during the controversy surrounding Rev. Jeremiah Wright, he seems to win the media over again. They can't get enough of this guy. I can hear the newsrooms now - "Hey John, do you want to go cover the Clinton fundraiser at the Hyatt?" "Nah, but can you fire up the Yes We Can video again?" "YES WE CAN!" Advantage: Obama

Experience: This is obviously Hillary's forte, but I can't figure out why the Obama camp hasn't asked the question: "Is being married to a politician akin to having the experience of being a politician?" Because if you exclude Hillary's time as First Lady, when she wasn't endowed with any Constitutional authority or responsible for any of Bill's decisions, her Senate experience is only eight years - which isn't much, especially in comparison to John McCain. Regardless, Clinton does have more experience - she even knows how to evade Bosnian snipers. Advantage: Clinton

Prediction: It looks like we're going to have to head to the scorecards for a resolution on this one. The only way there'll be a quick TKO is if Barack wins Pennsylvania. So stay tuned - this may not end until the 15th round in Denver. However, it's Obama's race to lose.

Slight Advantage: Obama.

Alex Garlick '08.5 is from Needham, Mass, and picked John Kerry to win the 2004 Election.