Teeing Off

Author: Peter Baumann

Last Saturday, with one blood-curling scream, flame-throwing, fist-pumping Anaheim Angels closer Francisco Rodriguez blew past Bobby Thigpen's previous record of 57 saves in a single season. With 13 games remaining, "K-Rod" appears poised not just to best Thigpen's mark, but to blow past it like a Ferrari by a Mack truck. With this save machine set to enter free agency after this season, K-Rod's agent no doubt finds himself seeing little dollar symbols in the saves column next to his client's name.

But how impressive of a season is Rodriguez actually having?

The fact is, Rodriguez's record says far more about the make-up of his team than it does about his own prowess. The Angels have put up the best record in baseball this year behind a combination of strong pitching, good defense and opportunistic hitting. Unlike the Yankees of the late 1990's or the Oakland Athletics of the 1980's, when the Angels win it is often by a score of 4-2 or 3-1. Therefore, Rodriguez is blessed with more save opportunities than your average closer.

Bear with me for a second. Anyone who has seen me try and do math knows I don't like to deal with numbers, so as boring as they might be for you, it is safe to say they torture me even more. But in this case numbers tell quite a story.

Up to this point in the season, Rodriguez has had 64 save opportunities. That is to say, 64 times he has entered a game with his team ahead by fewer than three runs, or the tying run on-base, at-bat or in the on-deck circle. The next closest number in baseball? 42. Put another way, the Angels have entered the ninth inning up three runs or fewer in an astounding 70 percent of their victories. By comparison, the Red Sox have only put Jonathan Papelbon in a similar situation in fewer than 50 percent of their wins.

So, given the environment that Rodriguez has been placed, would another closer have been as successful? It is dangerous to compare statistics across teams and leagues, but it appears safe to say that there are several closers having better years than Rodriguez. One prime example is Mariano Rivera of the New York Yankees. Rivera has 34 saves this season, but has only been given 35 save opportunities. Given his conversion rate, if he were to be given the 64 save opportunities that Rodriguez has had, he would theoretically have 62 saves at this point, four more than Rodriguez.

The moral of the story is that the save, one of the most oft-listed statistics in baseball, says more about the team than the pitcher. Despite breaking Thigpen's record, Rodriguez's year falls short not only of being historically good, but also of being the best during this current season.

That title, for now, would have to be bestowed on Philadelphia's Brad Lidge. Lidge, acquired during the off-season for little-used outfielder Michael Bourne, has proceeded to convert each of the 36 save opportunities he has been handed. While turning the ball over to Rodriguez in the ninth inning has only worked nine out of every ten times, Lidge has succeeded in making Phillies games eight-inning affairs, not once blowing a lead his team had spent an entire game concocting.

Someone is going to give Rodriguez a lot of money this off-season, and he probably deserves it, but buyer-beware - those gaudy save statistics aren't nearly as impressive as they look.