OP-ED The Obama Presidency-What Can We Expect?

Author: Matt Dickinson

What can we expect from an Obama presidency? The next two years will be the critical period for his administration. It is the time when presidents exercise maximum influence, often with an attitude of hopefulness tinged with hubris borne from winning a two-year struggle to obtain the nation's highest office. Obama will soon discover, however, that campaigning is not the same as governing; it is far easier to promise change than it will be to implement it.

We have seen, during the transition period, early indications about how Obama plans to govern: from the center, presumably through a strategy of political moderation and incremental policy change. His key cabinet and White House appointments are, for the most part, long on experience with a demonstrated commitment to the Clinton administration's New Democrat strategy of navigating between the parties' ideological extremes. Such pragmatism has been the hallmark of Obama's public life dating back to his days heading the Harvard Law Review, when he shunned the progressives who backed his candidacy in favor or reaching out to conservatives for political backing.

The critical lesson that Obama will learn in the next 24 months is that far from being the "most powerful position in the world", the presidency is in fact a very weak office. Except in those rare instances - FDR's first 100 Days, Bush during the immediate aftermath of 9/11 - when events conspire to temporarily centralize decision-making power in the Oval Office, presidents typically exercise very little unilateral authority. Instead, their effectiveness depends on their ability to persuade members of Congress, the executive branch and the public that what the President wants is what they should want too, but for their own interests.

Within these constitutionally-induced limits, however, there are steps Obama can take to maximize his governing effectiveness. First, he needs to foster a creative tension between his principle White House and cabinet advisers, rather than allow any single individual to become primus inter pares. Toward that end, and in contrast to Bill Clinton who actively resisted appointing veterans of the Carter presidency, Obama has leavened his White House and cabinet with ex-Clinton aides. Presumably the hope is that by pitting Clinton holdovers such as chief of staff Rahm Emmanuel and economic adviser Larry Summers against campaign operatives led by David Axelrod, Obama gains both experience and loyalty and avoids the crucial staff-induced errors that dogged the previous two Democratic administrations in their first days in office.

In foreign policy, Obama will need to deal constructively with the inevitable tensions that will arise between his National Security Adviser James Jones and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. By virtue of proximity and institutional allegiance, this conflict is almost always won by the NSC adviser. Despite this, Obama would be well advised to create the public perception that Clinton is the chief foreign policy spokesperson if for no other reason than to keep her from straying too far too soon from the reservation.

Obama's foreign policy in its broad outlines is not likely to differ much from the Bush administration's: no retreat from the global war on terror, a lengthy (albeit slightly diminished) presence in Iraq and a beefed up security commitment in Afghanistan. To be sure, Obama will certainly try to mend fences with the international community, but he will learn that there are limits to how far one can overcome basic policy conflicts rooted in different perceptions of national interest. Ironically, Obama will benefit from Congress' and the judiciary's pushback against the Bush administration efforts to broaden the scope of presidential authority in the national security realm; new limits negotiated in the areas of domestic eavesdropping, torture, and the treatment of prisoners means Obama will be spared the need to fight these battles from scratch. This is not to say the road ahead is without significant hurdles; Obama faces hard choices at home regarding closing Guantanamo Bay, restoring confidence in the nation's intelligence services, and generally balancing the need to protect the nation's borders without sacrificing basic civil liberties. He will find - as Bush did - that in the struggle to balance the two, the weight of constitutional responsibilities will push him toward securing national security first.

Domestically, Obama's ability to fulfill key campaign promises on health care, entitlement reform and middle-class tax cuts will be hampered by the need to address the credit crunch-induced economic downturn. Obama's first legislative priority will be working with Congress to pass an economic stimulus package designed to ameliorate the worst impact of the recession as soon as possible. Undoubtedly such legislation will be less economically targeted and more pork-laden than desirable, but that is the price of doing business with a geographically-based representative body in a system of shared powers. The hope will be that the stimulus package does not send the wrong economic signals in the form of a drastically bigger budget deficit and excessive regulations that conspire to lengthen the time for market forces to reverse the economic downturn. With luck, the economic rebound will occur early enough for Obama to take some credit in the run up to the 2012 election.

Obama will find that efforts to change the "tone" of political discourse in Washington are hampered by the reality that the deep partisan divide is largely rooted in differing, strongly-held beliefs of Democrat and Republican lawmakers regarding what government should do. These differences are exacerbated by a 24/7 blogger-driven news media fixated on viewing policy debates through the lens of political strategy and participants' personalities. Obama's words alone cannot bridge this partisan divide. Instead, if he hopes to fulfill his promise to create a more bipartisan tone, he will need to make significant political concessions to Republicans that will undoubtedly infuriate the left-wing of the Democratic Party.

A final thought: The presidency teaches humility. No one is truly prepared for it, and mistakes are inevitably made. Obama will learn that expectations for what he can accomplish far outstrip his capacity to deliver. How quickly he learns from his errors, and how he handles the inevitable frustrations of office will go a long way to determining his place in history. We, as citizens, can help that process. We need to recognize that mistakes will be made and judge Obama accordingly. Moreover, on most controversial issues, many - sometimes a majority of - Americans will not share our perspective. That does not make their views any less legitimate. When Obama takes the oath of office on Jan. 20, he becomes president of all Americans, and not just of those who share our political convictions. We are all in this together.