Klare rethinks U.S.-China resource relations

“I believe that, more and more in the 21st century, conflict will be driven over resource competition rather than ideology or politics,” Professor Michael Klare, professor and director of peace and world security studies, began his lecture on last Thursday, Nov. 12.

Klare spoke about the future of geopolitics and natural resources during his lecture, titled “The New Geopolitics of Energy: Beyond the Crisis.” Klare has authored numerous books and is a correspondent for The Nation, a contributing editor to Current History.

He supported this initial assertion by highlighting that wars have historically occurred over disputed resources. In this century, though, the ratio of supply and demand is rapidly changing and shows no potential for reversal. Klare cites this as a result of the drastic increase of the per capita share of the GDP in developing Asia, from $1,600 in 1990 to an anticipated $12,000. The emergence of this new middle class will boost automobile sales and consequently increase the demand on sources of energy. “China is predicted by 2015 to be the number one consumer of energy, passing the U.S., which has tremendous implications for the world economy, the environment and U.S.-Chinese relations, [especially for] the possibility of conflict,” stated Klare.

He also discussed how population growth has immense implications for the supply and demand ratio. The global population is expected to reach two billion people by 2050, all of whom will need land, food, water, and building materials. The challenge is finding clean, safe, and efficient ways to provide for the impending crisis.

Klare proceeded to discuss the status of petroleum and other sources of energy, concluding that clean energy must be developed if the world is to sustain peaceful life. “Petroleum is the single most important resource in international commerce, providing 40 percent of all oil,” said Klare. “Natural gas will last longer, but is a limited substance [that] will peak in production before the end of this century. Coal is less abundant than generally perceived and will peak mid-century.”

Klare proposed that the U.S. and China could develop clean energy together, an endeavor that would benefit both countries through shared cost and alteration of the dynamic to halt the potential for ultimate conflict. However, this would eliminate clean technologies from the status of commodity and lessen the potential for development resulting from competition.

“Though his suggestion that China and the U.S. work together could help disperse the risk involved with investing in new technologies,” said Litsey Corona ’11.5, who attended the lecture. “I’m not sure how likely it is that each country will engage in sharing technological findings that could put them ahead in the energy market.”

While it is unclear what the future of U.S.- Chinese relations will hold, Klare made a compelling argument for collaboration.“China continues to rely on coal for its primary source of energy,” he explained. “Carbon Dioxide emissions will impact global climate change, the global economy and China’s purchases of imported energy. Americans will have to pay higher prices for oil and other fuels,” said Klare.

Klare also clarified that his fear of future conflict is embedded in the future change in relations. “At the present time we are not at a genuine adversarial relationship with China,” he continued. “Competition over energy will become more intense if relations between Washington and Beijing deteriorate.”

He discussed how the fear of conflict can turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy and how, as a result, measures should be taken to ensure the continuance of peaceful relations.

“I especially liked when he talked about the future relationship between the U.S.A. and China and that the psychology is what really has to change,” said Jakob Terwitte ’13.

This altered psychology, if ever achieved, would have enormous implications for energy production, the environment and international relations.