Beyond the Bubble

While popular revolutionary movements have occurred in many states in North Africa and the Middle East since January, in no country have they proved as violent as in Libya. Over the past week, Libyan anti-government protestors have been met by force in several major cities, resulting in the deaths of hundreds of people and provoking international outrage.

Following the example set by neighboring countries, disenfranchised Libyans have taken to the streets to protest the dictatorial regime of current ruler Colonel Muammar el-Qaddafi. The autocrat has remained in power since 1969 and has ruled Libya with an iron fist, quashing political opposition and stunting economic development.

Such features have sowed the seeds for revolutionary action within a polity that is now demanding a political voice.

“The fear of decades was broken after what happened in Egypt and Tunisia,” described one Libyan in the Guardian. Capitalizing on the momentum of regional movements, revolutionary actions have been prompted sooner than many believed possible.

“We never thought this could happen in our lifetime,” added the interviewed citizen.

While strong in spirit, the revolutionary movement has not been centrally coordinated. The Guardian noted that “the regime and the rebels are fighting a war of attrition, in which the regime sends small army units to fire randomly and then withdraw, while (militias) attack neighboring checkpoints that have been harassing people as they entered and left town.”

These independent movements by local bands of revolutionary fighters have been limited in scope because of their uncoordinated nature. Lacking a central command structure has also significantly decreased the amount of information that the international community has regarding the violence.

Such a feature can be seen in the hazy reports surrounding the current death toll.

On Feb. 28 a UN press release stated that, “estimates of dead and wounded (are) ranging from hundreds to thousands.” The report also noted that “more than 100,000 people have so far fled to neighboring countries — 61,000 to Egypt, 40,000 to Tunisia and 1,000 to Niger.”

Colonel Qaddafi has maintained that there is not opposition movement, and that he retains the full support of his people. In an interview with the BBC he stated, “I am loved by all my people … My people would die to protect me ...”

While Qaddafi seems sure of the legitimacy of his rule, international actors have been much more skeptical. In BBC coverage, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently accused the leader of attacking innocent citizens using accused “mercenaries and thugs.”

“It is time for Qaddafi to go, now, without further violence or delay,” added Clinton.

In response to the internal unrest, international aid bodies have also recently stepped up to support the citizens of Libya. The World Health Organization, the World Food Program and the UN High Commissioner for Refugees have all sent aid to try and dampen the effects of the violence.

While revolutionary timelines are impossible to predict, the days of the current government may be numbered. Qaddafi is a man fighting for his political life. He will likely employ all methods available to him in order to remain in power. While thus far, such avenues have led him to violence, one can only hope that he will observe the examples set by other recently-ousted leaders in neighboring states, and shift his regime toward a more peaceful exit strategy.