Tuesday night, Barak Obama gave his penultimate state of the union address. The Obama administration is almost over, and the 2016 elections are coming up. That may seem far off, but the shuffling and sorting is well underway for both parties.
Before I get into who I think is in and who I think is out, I would like to touch on a few important things. I hope that some of you had the chance to see Stewart Stevens when he was here at Midd last fall. For those of you who don’t know who he is, he ran Romney’s 2012 presidential bid, and he had a few really important points to make. The presidential campaign system has forever been changed by campaign finance reform as well as some important Supreme Court decisions. This is a very complicated subject, but what you need to know is that Super PACs, sometimes funded by one mega-donor can keep otherwise hopeless candidates in the race. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are prime examples of that. In his discussion, Mr. Stevens referenced the old saying “there are only three tickets out of Iowa.” Meaning, that after the Iowa caucus, the three frontrunners would soak up most of the donations, leaving the others behind in the dust. This is no longer the case. We saw in 2012 that there were many more than “three tickets out of Iowa”, as long as you have a Super PAC. This new development has allowed for fringe groups to gain more attention, whereas in other years they would have likely fizzled out.
Another key development is that each campaign has two accounts, one for the general and one for the primary. In 2012, the Republicans had the disadvantage of having a primary, whereas Obama was able to fundraise for the general election, and ended up crushing Romney in spending the summer of 2012. This was because Romney had won the primary, but the convention hadn’t happened yet so his general election account was frozen. The playing field will be much more even in 2016.
But wait, there’s more. To make things more interesting in 2016, a large block of southern states are moving their primary elections all onto one day. These seven states, including Texas and Florida, plan to use this as a means of increasing southern influence over the nominees for each party. I predict this will have a large effect on the Republican Primary and to a lesser extent the Democratic one.
The Democratic primary, many people feel, will be a victory lap for Hillary Clinton. However, I disagree. Hillary Clinton’s book tour was an abysmal disaster. That was her testing the waters, and I think she may be unsure about what to do. On the flip side, this is her last shot, so she may very well throw caution to the wind and take the plunge. A second key point, and the Democrats don’t like to admit this, is that they have a rather healthy progressive-populist branch that will not give in to a second Clinton in the White House. Hillary is no populist, she is a fairly well connected business Democrat. I know that Hillary is the favorite, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Sen. Warren tried to feed off the populist, anti-Wall Street fervor of late; or if Hillary didn’t run at all. Also, Joe Biden should not be discarded. In fact, I really hope Joe runs. It would make the Democratic field the circus I hope it will be. Imagine the gaffs, and the late night sketches to follow. I get excited just thinking about it. I have one final detail on the Democrats before I slash through the Republican field; Democratic super-donor Tom Steyer may be eyeing a 2016 run for Barbara Boxer’s Senate seat. This could pose a problem for some democratic candidates because in 2014, he funneled money to PACs, Super PACs, and other environmental candidates. If he runs for office in 2016, that money will be spent on his own race, rather than be dispersed to a presidential candidate and/or PAC.
The Republican primary will be a more of a wild card, especially with the southern, super Tuesday. I just recently saw a straw poll in which Dr. Ben Carson was at the top. This is absolutely preposterous. Dr. Carson has no experience holding public office, and the last thing this country needs is a president with no executive experience. The one benefit for the GOP is that by nature of holding 31 governor’s mansions, we have a good crop of governors and former governors to choose from. I firmly believe that governors make the best presidents and Senators the best Vice Presidents (with a few exceptions), simply by the nature of the work. Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, Scott Walker, Mitch Daniels, John Kasich, Mike Huckabee, and Chris Christie. Subtract Huckabee, and I could see any one of these candidates as potential frontrunners and/or the party nominee. Stepping into an area of wishful thinking, and I would like to see Condoleezza Rice gain some traction. But she would never run. I’m sure she has been approached, and repelled all attempts to get her in the race.
Back in reality, a second straw poll I saw this week showed Mitt Romney in first place with 20 percent of the vote. Yet, the Wall Street Journal wrote a blistering editorial equating Romney as damaged goods. I disagree. If Romney can mount a successful “opportunity for all” style PR campaign, I believe he could be a formidable candidate that could take down a Hillary Clinton. However, I fear Romney will get smashed on Southern Tuesday, which I think will be bad for the party. I feel like Romney could win the general, but there are few scenarios in which I see him escaping a blistering primary. Call me crazy, but I want the most capable person in the White House, and in my eyes that person is Mitt.
Jeb Bush is another favorite of mine. A good, level-headed proactive executive. Exactly the type of person I would want in the situation room. He did a very good job as governor of Florida, but that may all turn out to be null and void because his last name is Bush. However, he could help Republicans reach out to Latino Voters in a serious way, considering that his wife is Mexican. The test will be if Florida, and other Southern States reward Bush on Southern Tuesday, which very well could happen.
Bush and Romney are the obvious heavy weights, but rather than discuss the rest of the field, I would like to discuss a dark-horse candidate I would like to see. I would really like to see South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley enter the race. A strong, pro-business, Republican, she has fought very hard to bring jobs to South Carolina and could be a strong, sensible, and inspiring candidate. I doubt she would run, but the RNC does have her as an option in the straw poll.
Finally, I would like to recognize what a smart move Paul Ryan (R-WI) made in not running for President, and making that very clear. As Ezra Klein (whom I have never really agreed with on anything until now) noted in his VOX piece, Ryan wields a lot more influence over policy in Congress as Ways and Means Chair. Candidates will be seeking his support and adopting his ideas, rather than distancing themselves from him as a contender for the nomination. I think that is very good for the party moving forward, as I believe Paul Ryan is a crucial policy maker for the GOP moving forward. All said and done, 2015 is sure to be an eventful year of shuffling and straw polls. Then on to 2016.
