Professor of Political Science Matt Dickinson has been traveling around Vermont to give his analysis and predictions on the outcome of the 2022 national midterm elections on Nov. 8.
“There are three constants in life: death, taxes and the president’s party will lose seats in the midterms,” Dickinson said.
Based on an aggregate of several popular political science theories on midterm election forecasting, Dickinson predicts that Democrats will lose their majority in the House.
“My best guess is that Republicans are going to pick up between 28–34 seats, which will give them more than enough to give them a majority in the house,” Dickinson said.
Senate election results, Dickinson said, are harder to predict.
“There are fewer races and the factors that influence Senate races are a little more idiosyncratic. Candidate quality matters more, and states are less homogenous [than House districts],” Dickinson said.
“Control of the Senate is going to come down to the outcome of six races: Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada,” Dickinson said. He predicts that Republicans are going to pick up Nevada and Democrats are going to pick up Pennsylvania, and the Senate will likely end in a 50-50 split, as it is right now.
“For the Senate, there is a little bit of art, where you have an intuition based in part on what you're seeing in advertising and debates and other factors,” Dickinson said. “The races in both states are very fluid, making accurate predictions regarding control of the Senate very difficult.”
Dickinson predicts that the Vermont races for the U.S. House, Senate and Lieutenant Governor seats will go to Democratic candidates. However, he expects the Gubernatorial seat will stay with the incumbent, Republican Governor Phil Scott.
The U.S. House seat, open for the first time since Peter Welch was elected in 2006, was only competitive during the primary when victor Sen. Becca Balint (D-Windham) faced off against Lieutenant Governor Molly Gray, according to Dickinson.
“[Balint’s] opponent is someone who won't even identify as a Republican, Liam Madden, and she is going to win that,” Dickinson said.
Similarly, Dickinson predicts that current House Representative Peter Welch will easily win the Senate race, especially as Vermont Republicans nominated a “Trumpy” candidate Gerald Malloy.
“The Republican party is not large enough in this state to overcome Welch’s advantage. But even if it was, it's divided. It's not as ‘Trumpy’ as the Republican party nationally,” Dickinson said.
In the Vermont Gubernatorial race, Dickinson predicts that Scott will win “pretty comfortably” over Democrat Brenda Seigel. “On various issues, for instance his handling of Covid-19, per capita Covid deaths were much lower than other states, he just gets good marks,” Dickinson said.
The only race that Dickinson thinks will be truly competitive, is the race for Vermont’s Lieutenant Governor.
“I think, because of the naturally blue lean of the state and because David Zuckerman is more well-known, although his unfavorables are also higher than Benning, I think Zuckerman is going to pull this out,” Dickinson said.
Tentatively, there will be an Election Night viewing party at Crossroads Café on Nov. 8 from 7-10:30 PM.
Lily Jones ’23 is an online editor and senior writer.
She previously served as a Senior News Writer and SGA Correspondent.
Jones is double majoring in Philosophy and Political Science. She also is an intern for the Rohatyn Center for Global Affairs and on the ultimate frisbee team.
