Preaching to the climate choir Famed Climatologist captivates College lecture-goers

Author: Julia McKinnon

When climatologist Michael Mann appeared at Middlebury to give this year's Margolin Environmental Affairs lecture, Benjamin F. Wissler Professor of Physics Richard Wolfson mysteriously presented him with a Middlebury College hockey stick.

Why? Because Mann is nationally renowned for his work in calculating the globe's change in atmospheric temperature over time. And the graph he has come up with to measure global temperature takes the alarming shape of a hockey stick turned on its side.

In his work, Mann strives to use statistical methodology to show that global temperatures are rising at an unnatural rate. His "hockey stick" graph shows global temperatures over the last millennium, relying on indicators like the width of tree rings and health of coral reefs to show temperatures in the years before thermometers existed.

His graph illustrates gradual but steady global cooling over the thousand-year period until the 20th century, at which point temperatures began to increase. The end of the graph shows a dramatic upward thrust - the "hockey stick blade" - indicating that the last two decades have consistently seen record-high temperatures. Mann believes this increase to be caused by human activity.

Mann came to Middlebury as this year's Scott Margolin Environmental Affairs lecturer. He works at Penn State University in the Departments of Meteorology and Geosciences, as well as in the Earth and Environmental Systems Institute. His famous graph was accepted for publication in 1999 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

As this year's Margolin lecturer, Mann joined the good company of many other famous individuals in the environmental world. In previous years, the Margolin Environmental Affairs lecture has brought to campus environmental historian William Cronon, climatologist Steven Schneider, Paul Ehrlich, author of the "Time Bomb," and Eileen Clausen, president of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change.

According to Wolfson, Mann was an interesting Margolin lecturer because, unlike many of the speakers from past years, "he's not at the end of his career." Instead, "Mann is up and coming," said Wolfson.

Mann is indeed up and coming in that he still plans on conducting extensive research. So far, he has achieved much acclaim. Mann's hockey stick graph is what he calls "iconic." Since publication by the IPCC, it has served as evidence of anthropogenic-related climate change. An article by John Daly states that Mann's graph "in one scientific coup overturned the whole of climate history."

"For policymakers, his graph became a symbol of how unusual climate has been over the last one hundred years," said Wolfson.

A large group of environmentally-minded students had lunch with Mann and got to know him on a personal level before his talk.

"Having lunch with Mann was a unique experience," said Lynne Zummo '06. "We all had the chance to sit down and talk with a brilliant climatologist about ideas that weren't necessarily science-oriented," she said.

Mann seemed to be intrigued by the number of involved Middlebury students. "We talked a lot about big versus small colleges - he is at Penn state - and he was praising Middlebury for having an active student body," said Dan Berkman '06, "especially when it comes to environmental issues."

Mann's lecture, entitled "Global Climate Change: Past and Future," was packed full, even though he had already given a lecture to about 100 science-oriented students earlier that day. Many students had to sit on the floor in the front and back of the room in order to hear Mann speak.

Mann somehow managed to engage the diverse crowd. He stood before an audience in John M. McCardell, Jr. Bicentennial hall and explained climate change to English majors, members of the environmentally-oriented Sunday Night Group, hockey players and senior citizens from the town of Middlebury, all interested in what he had to say.

"I was very impressed that he was such a good public speaker and people person," said Emily Egginton '06. "I thought his scientific presentation was [strong] because it was meant for a more educated audience but was still easy to grasp since he presented it so well."

The overwhelming size of the audience suggests a great depth of interest in climate change issues at Middlebury. "This is the big issue of the century," said Wolfson.

Mann's ability to achieve a well-designed scientific graph to depict human influence on climate change has brought him much recognition. Wolfson believes that the message Mann conveyed to Middlebury and to the IPCC is a crucial one. Climate change, said Wolfson, "is going to affect all of us. I don't think it's going to make the world uninhabitable, but it's going to cause other problems that exacerbate the injustices in the world. It will cause a strain for everybody."